Marine Fuels 360: Experts weigh in on opinions of current bunker fuel oil market

Experts from various nodes of the marine fuels supply chain shared their thoughts of the current fuel oil market with delegates attending the Marine Fuels 360 conference in Singapore on Tuesday (7 October).

The session was moderated by Deborah Lee, Managing Editor, Asia and Middle East, Residual Fuels, S&P Global Platts, who hosted the group comprising of an oil pricing analyst and a bunker fuel survey & quality testing lab.

Wajdi Abdmessih, Founder & President, Seahawk Services – Fuel Quality Remains the Critical Factor

Abdmessih emphasised bunker fuel quality remains the most critical factor influencing vessel reliability—whether operating on HSFO, VLSFO, distillates, or emerging biofuels.

“After more than 35 years in fuel testing, recurring issues such as poor stability, sludge formation in low-viscosity VLSFO/ULSFO blends, and inadequate onboard treatment continue to surface,” he said.

“Blending is like cooking—the outcome depends on the quality of the ingredients. Many operational problems arise not from the fuel itself but from improper handling.

“We’ve seen fuels with relatively low aluminium + silicon (~21 mg/kg) still cause issues due to ineffective purification. In comparison, proper settling and centrifuging can reduce high levels (80 mg/kg) to below 10 mg/kg.”

Looking ahead, he urged bunker buyers to specify fuels in accordance with the latest ISO 8217:2024 standard.

“While most focus on the numerical limits in Tables 1 to 4, it’s Clause 5 that provides the real protection,” he explained while adding the 2024 edition clarifies and strengthens this clause through four sub-sections:

• 1 – General Requirements: Defines acceptable fuel composition—petroleum, synthetic, or renewable hydrocarbons, including FAME within agreed limits.
• 2 – Freedom from Harmful Materials: Requires fuels to be fit for use and free from substances that endanger safety, damage machinery, or harm personnel.
• 3 – Freedom from Acids and Chlorinated Hydrocarbons: Explicitly prohibits inorganic acids and organic chlorides (COC).
• 4 – Additives: Permits only additives that enhance performance and do not conflict with the preceding requirements.

Abdmessih added a note of caution:

“Clause 5 is the buyer’s safeguard against the unseen—but it must be applied responsibly. Every contamination claim should be backed by independent laboratory verification. That’s how we separate facts from ghosts.”

He concluded that adopting ISO 8217:2024 and enforcing robust analytical verification will ensure bunker fuels remain reliable, safe, and truly fit for purpose.

Yaw Yan Chong, Research Director, Wood Mackenzie – Market ‘chaos’ anticipated on 1 January 2030

“To date, the bunker fuels market is split between 55–60% toward low sulphur marine fuels and 35–45% for high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) and the trend is expected to continue to move towards HSFO having a bigger market share until 2028,” stated Yaw.

He added that IMO 2030 will require the carbon intensity of international shipping to be reduced by at least 40% from to 2008 levels, with most non-compliant shippers likely turning to bio-marine fuels as a short-term and immediate solution, reducing bunker sales for conventional fuel oil.

“How much fuel oil demand as bunkers will fall is anyone’s guess as it will vary from fleet-to-fleet demanding on their respective carbon emissions overall. This will likely also accelerate demand for HSFO as bio blendstocks have near-zero sulphur and can act as a sulphur-cutters, potentially shifting demand dynamics toward HSFO bases in blends,” he noted.

“Given that there are currently no liquid price benchmarks for bio-marine bunker, which can have very different bio blend components, I would expect some kind of chaos and pandemonium in the market from 1 January 2030, particularly on the pricing side.

“Remember IMO 2020, when it was just a sulphur spec change, but there was a lot of confusion in terms of the product specifications for the new fuel, resulting in pandemonium in the pricing market, with LSFO even more expensive than gas oil.

“There will be an even madder scramble for IMO 2030, with the product specifications even broader, especially when there is a disparity between those who have access to cheaper bio-blendstocks and those who don’t. Will there be enough supply? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess.”

Photo credit: Informa
Published: 15 October, 2025