SIBCON 2026: Commercial reality, not technology, will drive maritime energy transition, explains IBIA

The maritime energy transition is not hindered by a lack of technology, but rather by the complex commercial realities of supply and demand, according to the Executive Director of IBIA – the International Bunker Industry Association.

Alexander Prokopakis was speaking at the panel discussion Fuelling the Present & Bridging The Future: Market for Conventional & Biofuels to 2030 at the 24th Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition (SIBCON 2026) on Wednesday (14 October).

He argued that the industry must shift its focus from viewing the maritime energy transition as a series of obstacles to understanding it as a rational, market-driven evolution.

The Commercial Imperative

Prokopakis emphasised while the “green drive” has been a long-standing ambition for the shipping sector, the pace of change is ultimately dictated by availability and price.

He noted the maritime industry is currently in a “chicken and egg” situation where supply and demand must align before significant acceleration can occur.

While the technical solution or tool already exists, practical execution still depends on market economics, supply, and affordability.

“The technology is already here, but it cannot be widely adopted without the right availability and pricing,” Prokopakis stated.

He pointed out the market is currently adjusting to these realities, and that the transition is not stalled, but rather waiting for the necessary economic signals to trigger rapid adoption.

A Pragmatic Approach to Fuel Agnosticism

Prokopakis meanwhile advocated for a “fuel agnostic” stance, noting conventional fuel oil as marine fuel will remain a dominant force for the foreseeable future.

With new vessels currently under construction having a minimum operational lifespan of 20 years, he argued the industry must be pragmatic about the continued role of traditional bunker fuels.

Prokopakis drew a direct parallel to the development of the LNG market, suggesting alternative marine fuels should follow the same proven model of development.

He highlighted that the LNG bunkering market’s growth gained momentum after long-term contracts stopped being a prerequisite, a lesson that may be relevant to the development of other alternative marine fuels.

The Need for Commercial Savvy

Addressing the challenges faced by new fuel developers, Prokopakis urged for greater commercial flexibility.

He noted shipping is not prepared to offer the long-term contracts that developers of alternative marine fuels such as methanol and ethanol require to scale.

“If the new fuel developers don’t start being a little bit more commercial savvy, then this can only delay,” he warned.

Prokopakis concluded on a positive note, emphasising that the industry is still making progress.

He reminded stakeholders that the maritime sector operates on long lead times – with newbuilds often taking two years to deliver – and that the current market dynamics are a natural part of a complex, multi-fuel transition.

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 15 October 2026