SIBCON 2026: ElbOil highlights reality gap in shipping’s green energy transition

The shipping sector is currently navigating two distinct transitions: the ambitious, conference-driven narrative of new technologies and the day-to-day reality of bunker fuel trading, cautioned Harro Booth, CEO of ElbOil.

While the industry is moving toward a multi-fuel future, Booth emphasises there remains a significant distance between the two transitions, characterised by a gap between vessel capability and actual marine fuel consumption.

Speaking at the panel discussion Fuelling the Present & Bridging The Future: Market for Conventional & Biofuels to 2030 at the 24th Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition (SIBCON 2026) on Wednesday (14 October), Booth points to Singapore as a primary example of this disparity.

The Data Disconnect

In 2025, the Singapore bunkering market saw 57 million metric tonnes (mt) of bunker fuel sold, yet alternative marine fuels accounted for only 1.95 million mt, or 3.4% of the total.

Booth shared ElbOil sold 600,000 mt of conventional marine fuel to approximately 300 active clients from all segments of the shipping sector during Q3 2026; however, it only recorded 1.5% of alternative bunker fuels sales from the quarterly volume.

“Don’t get me wrong, I’m not questioning the transition at all because you see more volumes of alternative fuels, you see newbuilds coming, and you see investments being made,” he said.

“But we sometimes confuse the direction with the distance travelled,” Booth noted, highlighting that while interest and pilot projects are abundant, bunker purchase orders remain overwhelmingly conventional.

Capability Versus Consumption

A critical distinction, Booth highlights, is that “capability is not consumption” and “optionality is not transition”.

While many shipowners are investing in dual-fuel vessels, these are often strategic investments in optionality rather than immediate shifts in consumption.

Owners are making rational, long-term decisions to maintain the ability to burn conventional fuel because the future availability of alternative fuels remains uncertain.

Investment and Uncertainty

Addressing the investment landscape, Booth noted that capital is available for new technologies, but investors are currently paralysed by uncertainty.

He emphasised the industry needs leaders – investors with “meat on the bone” – to move beyond pilot projects and create repeatable demand at scale.

“What capital struggles with is uncertainty,” Booth explained, noting while venture capitalists may fund startups to create company value, the industry requires more fundamental capital to scale production.

The Path to 2030

Looking toward 2030, Booth maintains a positive outlook but stresses the need for a rational approach.

He believes the future will be a multi-fuel solution, but one that will take at least a decade to fully materialise.

Success will depend on balancing product availability, regulatory value, and economic viability across different geographic regions, as different markets may favour different fuel types.

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 15 October 2026