With vessels operating for 25 to 30 years and only around 4% of the fleet renewed annually, newbuild decisions made over the coming decade will establish much of the engine capacity available in 2050, Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation said on Thursday (17 September). 

Yet having the capacity to consume a new fuel does not guarantee its uptake. Dual-fuel engines allow shipowners to switch between conventional fuels and the selected new fuel as economics and regulations evolve; continued fuel competitiveness is therefore critical to what vessels ultimately consume.

These are among the findings of Navigating the maritime fuel transition: How fuel economics, regulations, and fleet decisions shape the future bunkering landscape, based on a model jointly developed by the GCMD and Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The model illustrates this dynamic in its base scenario. With the Tier-2 penalty under the IMO Net-Zero Framework held at USD 380/tCO2e through 2050, methanol dual-fuel engines account for around 10% of fleet engine capacity in 2050, but methanol represents just 2% of fleet energy consumption. With conventional fuels remaining more economical under this regulatory regime, methanol dual-fuel vessels continue to operate on fuels cheaper than methanol (Figure 1).

A global carbon price of USD 700/tCO2e materially changes the transition

The base scenario demonstrates how fuel economics can limit uptake even when vessels have the capacity to use new fuels. This picture changes if the IMO Tier-2 penalty rises to USD 700/tCO2e by 2050, at which point new fuels, including dropins, reach approximately 61% of fleet energy consumption (Figure 1).

By contrast, EU regulations alone will not drive a marked global shift, as they cover only around 20% of international shipping’s energy demand.

Overall cost of using e-methanol and e-ammonia is near parity

While a stronger global carbon price can accelerate the shift towards new fuels, the model does not point to a clear cost winner between e-methanol and e-ammonia.

E-ammonia’s production cost advantage is largely offset by higher logistics costs arising from its toxicity, including specialised crew training, larger exclusion zones, and more complex bunkering. As a result, the overall cost (Figure 2) of using e-ammonia and e-methanol is near parity through to 2050.

Professor Lynn Loo, CEO of GCMD, said: “Many vessels ordered over the coming decade will still be operating in 2050. Shipowners are therefore making long-lived engine choices before the relative economics of future fuels are clear. 

“Our modelling puts into perspective just how difficult closing the cost gap between new and conventional fuels will be. The carbon price required to close this gap is substantial. And achieving it will be particularly challenging in today’s geopolitical environment. Understanding the signposts that could change these economics will be critical to the decisions the industry makes today.”

Anand Veeraraghavan, Managing Director & Senior Partner at BCG, said: “The maritime fuel transition is being shaped as much by policy and cost uncertainty as by technology readiness. 

“Rather than offer a single prediction, our approach with GCMD maps how sensitive each fuel pathway’s competitive position is to a handful of critical variables — policy scenarios, key cost drivers, and potential restrictions. Our hope is that this gives shipowners, fuel suppliers, port operators, and infrastructure investors a practical tool to stress-test their own fuel strategies as conditions change.”

Photo credit: Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation
Published: 18 September, 2026

Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (Yang Ming) on Thursday (17 September) held a naming ceremony at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HD HHI) shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea, for YM Weight, the fourth vessel in its series of five 15,500 TEU-class LNG dual-fuel container vessels built by HD HHI. 

Mrs. Chiu-Lien Lin, the spouse of Administrative Deputy Minister of Transportation and Communications Mr. Kuo-Shian Lin, was invited as the Godmother to officially name the vessel and perform the ceremonial cord-cutting, wishing the ship smooth sailing and full loading on all future voyages. 

This series of vessels built by HD HHI has a length overall (LOA) of 364.97 meters, a breadth of 51 meters, and a capacity of approximately 15,600 TEU. 

The vessels are equipped with high-pressure dual-fuel main engines that run on both LNG and low-sulphur fuel oil, along with integrated navigational information, equipment monitoring, broadband maritime satellite systems, and multiple energy-saving systems to enhance operational efficiency and navigational safety. 

YM Weight, the fourth vessel in the series, is jointly classed by CR and the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), bringing international classification expertise and capabilities to safeguard the safety and technical compliance of next-generation LNG dual-fuel vessels. 

Furthermore, following proactive underwater noise measurements, the vessel has achieved two industry firsts by receiving the Underwater Noise (UWN) notation from ABS and the Underwater Radiated Noise (URN) notation from CR. The dual recognitions underscore Yang Ming’s commitment to mitigate operational impact on marine life and sustainable development. 

In addition to expanding its next-generation fleet and strengthening its core shipping business, Yang Ming has continued to strengthen professional training for seafarers operating alternative-fuel vessels. 

Yang Ming’s senior Captain Ming-Yeong Pan will serve as the delivery captain of ‘YM Weight’. Captain Pan is the first seafarer in Taiwan to receive the Advanced Training Certificate under the International Code of Safety for Ships Using Gases or Other Low-flashpoint Fuels (IGF Code), Certificate No. 0001, issued by the Maritime and Port Bureau, MOTC. 

To date, 148 Yang Ming officers have completed advanced IGF Code training and will progressively undertake onboard training aboard LNG-fueled vessels and practical alternative-fuel bunkering training. 

Photo credit: Yang Ming Marine Transport
Published: 18 September, 2026

Marine fuels supplier Peninsula on Thursday (17 September) confirmed that the crew member reported missing following last week’s incident involving bunker tanker Hercules Star off Dubai has been found dead.

The confirmation brings the death toll from the incident to two.

“Following the report of a loss of life during the incident involving the Hercules Star in the early hours of 9th September whilst at anchor off Dubai, we regret to announce that the missing crew member has been found deceased,” company said. 

“Their family have been informed, and we continue to offer our full support and our deepest condolences.”

“All members of the Hercules Star crew have now been repatriated and we continue to support them.”

According to a Reuters report last week, citing preliminary assessments by maritime security sources, the vessel may have been struck by a drone.

The report also said the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received a report of a vessel listing while at anchor about 24 nautical miles off the UAE’s Port Rashid, with the condition “possibly indicating water ingress following an attack from an unknown projectile”.

Related: Peninsula confirms one fatality, crew member missing from bunker tanker “Hercules Star”

Photo credit: Peninsula
Published: 18 September, 2026