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IMO 2020 regulation could have negative health and climate impacts, says research author

Dr Daniel Lack says cost-cutting group of oil refiners using residual fuel blends could send ship-source black carbon emissions soaring overnight.
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Dr Daniel Lack, the original author of the black carbon review work surrounding fuel switching, has published an article highlighting the use of residual fuel blends could send ship-source black carbon (BC) emissions soaring:

Fuel test results submitted to the IMO concerning the January 2020 Low Sulphur Fuel rule suggests that, in order to cut costs, the refining industry has created a range of new blended fuels that could overnight send ship-source black carbon emissions soaring.

A new regulation introduced on January 1, 2020, by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that limits sulphur in fuel oil used on board ships could significantly increase harmful black carbon (BC) emissions if blended fuels are used, according to a study and new position paper. 

BC is the second largest driver of global warming and is especially harmful to human health, aggravating the respiratory system and contributing to heart and lung disease and even birth defects. 

Under the new global limit, which amends MARPOL Annex VI, as of January 1 this year commercial ships must use fuel oil on board with a sulphur content of no more than 0.50%. That compares with the previous limit of 3.50%. According to the IMO, the regulation is expected to cut sulphur oxide emissions from ships by 77 percent.

A collection of studies and academic literature reviews, some commissioned by the IMO, have suggested that the 2020 fuel sulphur rule would not only drop sulphur dioxide emissions dramatically, but BC emissions as well, however only if the residual fuels are switched for distillates.

A recent study submitted by Germany and Finland to the IMO (PPR7/8) has shown that using residual fuel blends to achieve the sulphur cap instead of distillates, while more cost-effective for owners, will dramatically increase BC emissions.

Dr Daniel Lack, the original author of the black carbon review work surrounding fuel switching explains, “Residual fuels have more aromatic hydrocarbons that lead to less efficient combustion and more black carbon, while a low sulphur distillate fuel has significantly less aromatics and emit much less black carbon. A lower sulphur fuel blend of high and low sulphur residual fuels still contain significant aromatics, and thus emit more black carbon.”

A position paper submitted by the CSC, FOEI, WWF, and Pacific Environment to the IMO on December 27, 2019, called for urgent action to be taken to stop the use of blended low sulphur residual fuels, which lead to increases in ship-source BC globally.

The paper suggests that, “In an attempt to reduce the cost of creating IMO 2020 compliant fuels and maintain a semblance of business as usual, the refining industry has created a range of new blended fuels that could overnight send ship-source black carbon emissions soaring. Such an outcome would undermine IMO’s attempt at tackling shipping’s contribution to the climate crisis, and would seriously aggravate global efforts to combat climate change in general and warming in the Arctic in particular.”

The paper goes on to note that, “It is extremely difficult to believe that oil refiners and the oil industry in general were not aware of the potential impact of aromatic compounds on black carbon emissions when developing new low sulphur marine fuel blends.” 

It is hoped that urgent action will be taken to address this at the forthcoming Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (MEPC 75), which will take place in March, 2020.

Dr Lack concludes that, “nearly a decade of rigorous scientific study and review shows the significant health and environmental benefits of ships switching from residual to distillate fuels. The IMO should be commended for regulations that will drive down SO2 emissions. However they are at a crossroads where they have the simultaneous opportunity to drive down BC emissions as well, if the right fuels are regulated.”

 

Photo credit: Cyprien Hauser
Published: 28 January, 2020

 

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Methanol

GENA Solutions: Total renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline increases from 61.8 to 62.2 Mt by 2032

Information shared by MI – the Global Methanol Alliance meant to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.
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September 4, 2026

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MI – the Global Methanol Alliance recently shared with Manifold Times the renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline August 2026 release produced by GENA Solutions Oy.

Information from the release is meant to provide the bunkering publication’s readers with insight on renewable methanol availability, and to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.

Key takeaways from GENA’s August 2026 Methanol release are as follows:

  • As of the end of August 2026, GENA tracks 286 renewable and low carbon methanol projects, representing 62.2 Mt of capacity by 2032. This includes 25.1 Mt of e-methanol, 25.9 Mt of biomethanol, and 11.2 Mt of low carbon methanol capacity.
  • Two new projects were added to Project Navigator last month, while one frozen project was excluded. The project pipeline increased by 0.4 Mt month on month.
  • Four new offtake agreements were registered during August, including two biomethanol and two e-methanol agreements.
  • About 8% of the cumulative renewable methanol project pipeline capacity has reached FID so far, with another 11% at the FEED stage.
  • Considering the current uncertainty around regulatory developments and demand growth, GENA projects that renewable methanol capacity could reach 6 Mt to 12 Mt by 2031.

Note: The full article can be viewed here.

Renewable methanol project pipeline 4 Renewable methanol by feedstock 8 Renewable methanol by region 7 Project pipeline by status Methanol capacity scenarios

 

Photo credit: GENA Solutions
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Business

Singapore: MPA urges maritime firms to prepare for potential haze with plan

MPA encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

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August 31, 2026

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RESIZED SG bunker tanker

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Monday (31 August) issued Port Marine Circular No. 9 of 2026 on steps for maritime companies to take for potential haze affecting Singapore:

BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR HAZE

This circular supersedes Port Marine Circular No. 09 of 2023.

With reference to the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) joint media release issued on 9 August 2026, hotspots were observed in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, with prevailing winds potentially bringing smoke haze towards Singapore. The dry conditions may further increase the likelihood of haze affecting Singapore. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

MPA advises all maritime companies to monitor the PSI level through the media and the NEA’s website (www.haze.gov.sg), keep at least a one-week supply of N95 masks for workers especially those who work outdoors, and observe the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) Haze guidelines and advisory for work which can be found on their website (www.mom.gov.sg/haze). The latter include guidelines to ensure that stocks of N95 masks are periodically inspected, remain serviceable, and not expired.

The visibility in the Singapore Strait and port waters could be significantly reduced in the event of haze. During periods of restricted visibility, shipmasters are advised to keep a proper lookout and navigate with caution. They are also advised to comply with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and in particular Rule No. 19, Rule No. 20 and Rule 35 concerning conduct of vessels in restricted visibility, exhibition of navigation lights and sound signals in restricted visibility, respectively.

In the interest of safety of navigation and life at sea, the Port Master may restrict the movement of harbour craft and pleasure craft in the port waters during reduced visibility conditions.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 August, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of IMO NZF in its current form to its outright rejection, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term bunker fuel and technology strategies.
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August 28, 2026

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DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios, said classification society DNV on Thursday (27 August). 

According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said: “Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”

Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit. A case study of a hydrodynamic measures retrofit on a 5,000 TEU container vessel showed potential annual fuel savings of 16%, with a payback time of around one to four years depending on future fuel prices. Retrofits can add similar value across many ship types and with sufficient planning can typically be completed during a standard class-renewal dry docking.

The development of the marine low-GHG fuel market remains a key challenge. While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.

Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share. However, the cost of reducing emissions varies significantly between fuel pathways, with abatement costs ranging from about 180 to 1,290 USD per tonne of CO₂ avoided, highlighting the importance of regulation and market incentives in enabling low-GHG fuel markets to develop.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, said: “Scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and consequently, GHG emissions. By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve. Strategies that each owner chooses will also be dependent on their fleet type and operating context.”

Key findings from the report: 

  • Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
  • With global regulatory incentives in place, the world-fleet could consume 25% less energy by 2050 than under a scenario limited to regional regulations.
  • Energy efficiency can pay off regardless of regulatory outcome – 5,000 TEU container ship case study shows 16% annual fuel savings from hydrodynamic measures retrofit.
  • Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and the availability of these fuels in a competitive global market.
  • Current project pipelines indicate that a maximum of 270 Mtoe of supply could be available by 2030, though actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share.
  • Testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition. Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Note: DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be found here. 

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 28 August, 2026

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