Integr8 report: US sanctions trigger surge in Singapore, ARA HSFO bunker fuel quality issues

Bunker trading and fuel management services firm Integr8 Fuels on Wednesday (10 September) published its latest biannual Bunker Quality Trends Report, highlighting how shifting geopolitics, new regulations, and the rise of biofuels are reshaping marine fuel markets in 2025.

The report highlighted that the January 2025 US sanctions package has reshaped global fuel flows, with Middle Eastern barrels replacing curtailed Russian cargoes. This has driven a doubling of HSFO quality notifications in Singapore, and, in the Antwerp-Amsterdam-Rotterdam (ARA) region, off-spec results are now at 4% of all tests, up from 2.3% late last year.

In both regions, elevated ash is the leading culprit, reflecting the growing prevalence of heavier, metal-rich cargoes in HSFO blending. 

Other highlights of the report include:

Mediterranean ECA Reshapes Fuel Mix – Quality Issues Are Easing 

Coinciding with the May 01 implementation of the Mediterranean Emission Control Area (ECA) which mandates a 0.1% sulphur limit, the bunker fuel mix has shifted significantly. With another month of data available since Integr8’s last published analysis, we can see the market is still shifting but movements have settled somewhat:

• VLSFO share nearly halved, from 60% in Dec 2024 to 35.6% in June 2025.
• LSMGO demand more than doubled, from 13% to 30%.
• HSFO climbed slightly to 30.1%, supported by scrubber-fitted ships.
• ULSFO surged, from 0.3% to 4.1%.

For ULSFO, the spike in off-specification notifications seen in June dropped sharply in July, suggesting that the initial teething issues following the ECA’s introduction are easing. 

Biofuels: Balancing Quality Risks and Regulatory Rewards 

Biofuels remain niche but increasingly attractive under EU and ECA regulations. The report identifies both risks and opportunities:

• Around 13% of both B100 and LSMGO-30 samples showed elevated pour points, raising handling challenges in colder climates.
• Cost advantages emerge when shipowners adopt the following strategy:

1. Purchase B100 in Rotterdam, where tradeable HBE tickets create a pricing edge over Belgian ports.
2. Substitute B100 for LSMGO or ULSFO in ECAs, narrowing the cost gap versus conventional fuels.

• Focus on intra-EU voyages, maximising regulatory benefits under EU ETS and FuelEU compliance.
• Leverage FuelEU pooling mechanisms to trade over- and under-compliance, unlocking additional value opportunities.

“Sanctions, new ECAs and alternative fuels are all reshaping the bunker landscape at the same time,” said Chris Turner, Bunker Quality & Claims Manager at Integr8 Fuels. 

“Our latest whitepaper shows how these changes are not only affecting fuel availability and compliance but also creating new risks and opportunities in quality and cost. Shipowners need to stay on top of these shifts to avoid exposure and unlock the benefits where they exist.”

The report also said previous reports highlighted the ARA complex as the “principal sulphur risk” for VLSFO, and the latest half-year data confirmed that assessment.

Across the twelve ports that provide data for the hub 9.5% of all VLSFO samples test in the grey zone between 0.51 and 0.53% Wt., inside the 95% statistical tolerance band, and 1.7% test beyond that.

By contrast Singapore maintains an exceptional record: 1.4% borderline and only 0.2% off spec.

In practical terms, a stem lifted in ARA today carries roughly an eight-fold higher probability of analysing beyond the MARPOL sulphur cap than one loaded in Singapore based purely on owners’ analysis.

Interestingly the risk distribution inside ARA remains uneven, according to the report. 

“Core bunkering points such as Rotterdam and Antwerp show manageable off spec rates of 1-2% yet still record almost one sample in ten sitting in the tolerance band. Peripheral ports display materially weaker performance, with outright failure rates running into double digits in some cases,” it said. 

Note: Integr8’s Bunker Quality Trends Report, published in September 2025, can be downloaded here. 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 11 September, 2025