DNV: Testing fleet strategies against an uncertain energy transition

A case study in DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 examines how different regulatory, fuel market and energy transition scenarios could affect fleet renewal strategies for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). 

The analysis explores how shipowners can use DNV’s framework to assess costs and transition risks when making long-term investment decisions:

The scenario-based framework supports the assessment of transition risk and the identification of fuel and technology pathways that balance cost and risk at fleet level. The analysis shows that fleet strategies can perform very differently depending on how the energy transition unfolds, with markedly different outcomes across the defined slow- and rapid-transition scenarios.

“The case study also highlights how the cost and risk assessment outputs can be combined into an overall strategy score for more robust decision-making,” says Øyvind Sekkesæter, Senior Consultant at DNV and lead author of this year’s Maritime Forecast report.

Updating the framework for managing energy transition risk

The case study involves an updated version of DNV’s three-step framework for integrating qualitative, non-monetary risks with financial modelling.

Step 1 defines potential fleet strategies, including outlining fuel choices, retrofits, and fleet renewal.

Step 2 defines scenarios and involves modelling regulatory timelines, fuel availability, and pricing.

Step 3 conducts robustness checks by stress-testing strategies against scenarios with respect to both risk and cost.

Case study: A VLCC fleet for renewal

Maritime Forecast to 2050 applies the framework to a shipowner managing five very large crude carriers (VLCCs) trading on the spot market with limited EU/EEA exposure.

The fleet consists of conventional, scrubber-fitted vessels without shore power capability: two built in 2010, one in 2015, and two in 2020. A structured fleet renewal programme replaces each vessel at 20 years of age, starting in 2030.

Defining the strategies

The case study compares two potential fleet strategies from 2026 to 2050.

Strategy A: HSHFO + scrubber (illustrated below) – here, the owner continues ordering conventional-fuel newbuilds with open-loop scrubbers to exploit cheap high sulphur heavy fuel oil (HSHFO). The existing fleet utilizes basic operational measures (hull cleaning, weather routing) without physical retrofits.

Strategy B: Phase-in of dual-fuel LNG ships – here, the owner transitions to LNG dual-fuel newbuilds designed with advanced energy efficiency (shaft generators) and shore power. In 2026, the three newest existing ships undergo retrofits. These install pre- and post-swirl energy-saving devices, variable-frequency drives on seawater pumps, and low-friction silicone hull coatings.

Two potential transition scenarios are defined for stress-testing the strategies.

Note: The full article by DNV can be found here. 

Photo credit: CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash
Published: 23 October, 2026