Manchester University researchers use AI to forecast bunker fuel costs

The University of Manchester on Tuesday (23 December) said its researchers are using AI to forecast bunker fuel costs, helping the shipping industry to optimise for smarter refuelling and more resilient global trade.

Fuel is one of the biggest costs for shipping companies, often making up more than half of a vessel’s operating expenses. With prices fluctuating daily and varying across ports, even small miscalculations can make or break profitability.

The research work led by Dr Arijit De at the Alliance Manchester Business School, are using advanced artificial intelligence to bring clarity to this turbulent market. Their MarineFuelAI system combines historical fuel data, economic indicators and port-specific variables to forecast bunker fuel prices for different fuel grades at several global ports, for up to 60 days in advance.

The technology doesn’t just crunch numbers. Enhanced with explainable AI techniques, it can reveal the hidden drivers behind fuel price movements, from regional demand shifts to geopolitical events like the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

These tailored, route-based forecasts can give shipping companies much more confidence in their refuelling decisions. 

Dr Arijit De explained: “This approach brings clarity around future fuel prices, cuts bunkering costs and helps global shipping sail confidently through uncertainty, toward a more efficient, resilient and future-ready industry.”

By reducing both risk and expense, improving operational efficiency, MarineFuelAI could help the maritime sector navigate fuel volatility while supporting a more sustainable global shipping industry into the future.

Photo credit: Venti Views on Unsplash
Published: 24 December, 2025