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SINTEF research suggests LSFO bunkers may not be as green as thought

Energy required in global production of LSFO produces far more GHG than production of HSFO, says research.
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Scrubber technology firm Pacific Green Technologies (PGT) on Monday (16 September) published an article ‘HFO and Gas Scrubbers Will Help Meet Greenhouse Gas Targets’ informing the shipping industry on LSFO’s true carbon footprint when compared to using HSFO with scrubbers to meet IMO 2020 regulations:

A new study published by independent Norwegian research organisation SINTEF suggests that shipowners have something to learn from Prius drivers.
Toyota’s famous hybrid was launched just over 10 years ago as one of the world’s first mainstream ‘green’ vehicles. It was the carbon-friendly alternative that eco-minded drivers had apparently been longing for.

However, though it was true that the Prius emitted lower quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG), it was not as obvious a win for the environment as was widely assumed.

When the window of impact assessment was widened to include the production of the vehicle itself, the conclusions were no longer as convincing.

Studies by the US Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory have shown that the production of hybrid vehicles requires significantly more energy than the production of standard vehicles, burning more fossil fuels and producing more GHG, including sulphur oxide (SOx).

As a result, the Prius’ carbon footprint is much higher than common sense may suggest.

So it is with low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO).

The research suggests that, as with the Prius, environmental common sense can be deceiving

The SOx produced in Prius battery production is also at the heart of IMO 2020, the single biggest legislative event in the maritime industry for decades.
New sulphur (sulfur) oxide emissions targets taking effect on 1 January 2020, have required shipowners to seek radical compliance solutions.

The most popular of these is the switch to LSFO, which has a maximum sulphur content of 0.5%. The second most popular solution sees the vessel fitted with an exhaust gas scrubber that cleans engine fumes and permits the ship to continue burning high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).

Many owners have chosen to proceed with option 1, believing it to be the more eco-friendly, and therefore politically and economically safer, alternative.

However, SINTEF’s recent research suggests that, as with the Prius, environmental common sense can be deceiving.

In order to understand LSFO’s true carbon footprint, it is necessary to assess the fuel’s full lifecycle. Measuring the ecological cost of LSFO cannot be limited to the narrow view of its use at sea.

According to SINTEF’s Chief scientist Dr Elizabeth Lindstad, the energy required in the global production of LSFO produces far more GHG than in the production of HSFO.

The difference is also compounded by scale.

Using HSFO with an exhaust gas cleaning system is the most environmentally-beneficial solution

With so many ships leaning towards LSFO as their compliance solution next year, the supply of LSFO has to climb drastically to meet demand.

With more distillate fuel production will come more GHG production, so the increased use of a lower sulphur fuel may end up being the biggest challenge to IMO 2020’s success.

In her report, Dr Lindstad concludes that, measured from well to wake, using HSFO with an exhaust gas cleaning system is the most environmentally-beneficial way of meeting IMO 2020 requirements.

“With new modern refineries set up to convert crude into higher-priced products, HSFO will, from 2020, be delivered from existing refineries where its share of energy consumption can be considered to be next to nothing.”

“The explanation is that the heavy bunker oil coming out from the refinery is the bottom of the barrel. If we acknowledge the lower energy consumption in delivering HSFO and deduct the refining we get 9 to 10g of CO2 equivalent per MJ for HFO, rather than 13 to 15 of CO2 equivalent per MJ for LSFO/MGO.”

The SINTEF study is another important piece in the growing discussion around the carbon emissions impact of the new IMO rules.

Established by Marpol Annex VI, the new 2020 laws focus on major greenhouse gases like sulphur oxide and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide, however, will be the subject of future IMO legislation, with a view to reducing the industry’s carbon output by 50% before 2050.

That has always been an ambitious target, but mounting evidence suggests that the widespread use of LSFO in complying with IMO 2020 will make carbon footprint reduction even more challenging.

SINTEF’s recent research confirms findings in papers such as Emissions Tradeoffs among Alternative Marine Fuels which raise questions about the net impact of CO2 emissions from LSFO.

But, Dr Lindstad’s work goes further to confirm that scrubbers, which also eliminate black carbon and particulate matter, offer shipowners the best long-term solution against carbon-focused legislation.

Published: 17 September, 2019
 

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Methanol

GENA Solutions: Total renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline increases from 61.8 to 62.2 Mt by 2032

Information shared by MI – the Global Methanol Alliance meant to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.
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September 4, 2026

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MI – the Global Methanol Alliance recently shared with Manifold Times the renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline August 2026 release produced by GENA Solutions Oy.

Information from the release is meant to provide the bunkering publication’s readers with insight on renewable methanol availability, and to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.

Key takeaways from GENA’s August 2026 Methanol release are as follows:

  • As of the end of August 2026, GENA tracks 286 renewable and low carbon methanol projects, representing 62.2 Mt of capacity by 2032. This includes 25.1 Mt of e-methanol, 25.9 Mt of biomethanol, and 11.2 Mt of low carbon methanol capacity.
  • Two new projects were added to Project Navigator last month, while one frozen project was excluded. The project pipeline increased by 0.4 Mt month on month.
  • Four new offtake agreements were registered during August, including two biomethanol and two e-methanol agreements.
  • About 8% of the cumulative renewable methanol project pipeline capacity has reached FID so far, with another 11% at the FEED stage.
  • Considering the current uncertainty around regulatory developments and demand growth, GENA projects that renewable methanol capacity could reach 6 Mt to 12 Mt by 2031.

Note: The full article can be viewed here.

Renewable methanol project pipeline 4 Renewable methanol by feedstock 8 Renewable methanol by region 7 Project pipeline by status Methanol capacity scenarios

 

Photo credit: GENA Solutions
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Business

Singapore: MPA urges maritime firms to prepare for potential haze with plan

MPA encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

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August 31, 2026

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RESIZED SG bunker tanker

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Monday (31 August) issued Port Marine Circular No. 9 of 2026 on steps for maritime companies to take for potential haze affecting Singapore:

BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR HAZE

This circular supersedes Port Marine Circular No. 09 of 2023.

With reference to the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) joint media release issued on 9 August 2026, hotspots were observed in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, with prevailing winds potentially bringing smoke haze towards Singapore. The dry conditions may further increase the likelihood of haze affecting Singapore. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

MPA advises all maritime companies to monitor the PSI level through the media and the NEA’s website (www.haze.gov.sg), keep at least a one-week supply of N95 masks for workers especially those who work outdoors, and observe the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) Haze guidelines and advisory for work which can be found on their website (www.mom.gov.sg/haze). The latter include guidelines to ensure that stocks of N95 masks are periodically inspected, remain serviceable, and not expired.

The visibility in the Singapore Strait and port waters could be significantly reduced in the event of haze. During periods of restricted visibility, shipmasters are advised to keep a proper lookout and navigate with caution. They are also advised to comply with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and in particular Rule No. 19, Rule No. 20 and Rule 35 concerning conduct of vessels in restricted visibility, exhibition of navigation lights and sound signals in restricted visibility, respectively.

In the interest of safety of navigation and life at sea, the Port Master may restrict the movement of harbour craft and pleasure craft in the port waters during reduced visibility conditions.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 August, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of IMO NZF in its current form to its outright rejection, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term bunker fuel and technology strategies.
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August 28, 2026

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DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios, said classification society DNV on Thursday (27 August). 

According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said: “Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”

Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit. A case study of a hydrodynamic measures retrofit on a 5,000 TEU container vessel showed potential annual fuel savings of 16%, with a payback time of around one to four years depending on future fuel prices. Retrofits can add similar value across many ship types and with sufficient planning can typically be completed during a standard class-renewal dry docking.

The development of the marine low-GHG fuel market remains a key challenge. While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.

Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share. However, the cost of reducing emissions varies significantly between fuel pathways, with abatement costs ranging from about 180 to 1,290 USD per tonne of CO₂ avoided, highlighting the importance of regulation and market incentives in enabling low-GHG fuel markets to develop.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, said: “Scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and consequently, GHG emissions. By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve. Strategies that each owner chooses will also be dependent on their fleet type and operating context.”

Key findings from the report: 

  • Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
  • With global regulatory incentives in place, the world-fleet could consume 25% less energy by 2050 than under a scenario limited to regional regulations.
  • Energy efficiency can pay off regardless of regulatory outcome – 5,000 TEU container ship case study shows 16% annual fuel savings from hydrodynamic measures retrofit.
  • Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and the availability of these fuels in a competitive global market.
  • Current project pipelines indicate that a maximum of 270 Mtoe of supply could be available by 2030, though actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share.
  • Testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition. Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Note: DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be found here. 

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 28 August, 2026

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